Authors : Amir Soltani Moghim, Mahsa Keynejad and Mostafa Heydari Haratemeh
Abstract: In this research, the methods of vector auto-regression or Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), error correcting model of ECM, vector regression of VAR, Johansen-Juselius co-integration test, engel-granger causality have been used in order to discuss and study the effective factors on the demands for the third person insurance and the way of how to affect and the amount of affections of each of these influencing factors and also to considerate short term and long term relations between the variables during 1357-1391 and in order to considerate the durability of factors unit root tests of variables DF and ADF in eviews and microfit software have been utilized. Regarding to this matter that the ratio of logarithm of gross domestic product to basic prices is positive means that the demands for the third person insurance is such an ordinary goods and because this ratio 0.698 is between zero and one (0<0.698>1) it can be concluded the income elasticity is greater than zero and less than one. Regarding to being less than one and also regarding to calculations done, the third person insurance is considered as an indispensable goods and a pivotal service. In the other side regarding to the ratio of the variable of logarithm with respect to the surplus value of the services of financial and monetary institutions to basic prices is achieved as a price variable which is equaled to absolute value -0.317 that this negativity is corresponded with theoretical foundations and principles of demand which means that there is a reverse relation between price variable (premium rate) and the demand for the third person insurance. The amount (size) of this ratio shows that for instance with a 100% change in variable, the demand for the third person insurance changes about 32% in the opposite direction and this indicates the influence of price factor in the demand for the third person insurance.
Amir Soltani Moghim, Mahsa Keynejad and Mostafa Heydari Haratemeh, 2016. Estimating the Demand Function of Civil Liability Insurance of Vehicle Owners Against Third Parties in Iran (Period of 1979-2012). International Business Management, 10: 1284-1291.