Authors : Brychan Celfyn Thomas
Abstract: The aim of this study to considers the exponential growth of the Technium concept on the Internet in relation to business incubation and support for new and existing enterprises in Wales. A simple calculation of the rate of increase in the posting of items on the Internet on the Technium concept has been made. This has involved the net rate of multiplication (geometric rate of increase) over the period 2001 to 2004. An elaborate method of determining the finite rate for increase, which is the multiplication rate of increase which results in a stable distribution has been considered. The natural logarithm of 8 is the innate capacity of increase [r]. This is an infinitesimal rate of increase expressed by the differential equation dN/dt = rN, where N is the number of postings on the Internet. Here N and N are the numbers before and after a time interval. It is accepted that t t+1 the increase in the number of postings of items on the Internet reporting the development of the Technium concept cannot continue indefinitely. As the exploitation of the concept becomes complete the rate of increase will diminish until a saturation point is reached. At this point no further increase is achievable. This poses the question when will the saturation point be reached? The curve showing the increase from the initial to the saturation point delivers an S-shaped (sigmoidal) curve when the arithmetic increase in the number of items posted on the Internet is measured. These assumptions deliver the following equation: dN/dt = rN [K-N]/K where dN/dt is the rate of increase of the posting of items on the Internet on the Technium concept, N is the number of items present and K is the number that can be achieved at saturation. The above equations are the theoretical formulation of the growth of the posting of items on the Internet. Since in practice there is limited data due to the short period under consideration in order to answer the question when the saturation level will be reached for the postings a doubling time approximation has been formulated for a saturation time to be extrapolated.These formulations provide an understanding of the dynamics of the exponential growth of the use of the Internet for reporting the development of the Technium concept and answer the question as to when saturation will be reached.
Brychan Celfyn Thomas , 2005. Exponential Growth of the Technium Concept on the Internet . Asian Journal of Information Technology, 4: 1061-1067.