Authors : S. Saengwong, C. Jatuporn and S.W. Roan
Abstract: In Taiwan, the livestock production sector is the primary provider for agricultural and domestic meat consumption which is shared among pork, poultry and beef. Livestock prices fluctuate based on demand, supply and other factors such as the outbreak of diseases, increased production costs, consumer behaviour, foreign competition and natural disasters. This study attempts to model the possible cointegration of price elasticity, demonstrate the causality for a directional relationship and forecast the future prices of broiler, cattle, duck and hog in Taiwan by using time series analyses such as the unit root, Johansen cointegration, Granger causality and variance decomposition tests. The Johansen cointegration test indicated significant price elasticity among the variables. The long-run Granger causality test showed that a bidirectional relationship exists between hog and broiler prices and that a unidirectional relationship exists from the duck price to the hog price. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and variance decomposition methods were used to predict the future livestock price and the riskiness of shocks in a future 12 months period.
S. Saengwong, C. Jatuporn and S.W. Roan, 2012. An Analysis of Taiwanese Livestock Prices: Empirical Time Series Approaches. Journal of Animal and Veterinary Advances, 11: 4340-4346.