Authors : A.S. Adedimila, A.O. Olutaiwo and Orolu Kehinde
Abstract: The research presented here is a part of a simplified Pavement Information and Management System (PIMS) constructed for a typical developing country. Pavement deterioration modeling based on historical record of the objective function (performance) variation with age (time) requires regular measurement of the condition rating of pavement sections over a period of some years. Based on the generated model curves using historical data, future condition rating could then be predicted. In the absence of such information and record in the country (Nigeria), such method cannot be used and the alternative is to use probabilistic modeling. With the aid of Matlab and Visual Basic application software, three models were developed to generate pavement deterioration profiles, accruable user costs and intervention maintenance costs. The developed models were applied to a case study road. The results proved that timely intervention to maintain pavements at appropriate times will significantly reduce the overall expenditure for both the road users and the government. This was also attested to by the results of the benefit-cost analysis carried out.
A.S. Adedimila, A.O. Olutaiwo and Orolu Kehinde, 2009. Markovian Probabilistic Pavement Performance PredictionModels for a Developing Country. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 4: 13-26.