Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences

Year: 2018
Volume: 13
Issue: 6 SI
Page No. 5203 - 5208

Development of Demand for Evacuation Forecasting Methods for Shelters Using Accessibility Analysis

Authors : Lee Ji-Soo and Lee Yoon-Ha

Abstract: In the present study, accessibility analyses were conducted based on actual pedestrian paths to derive the catchment areas of shelters with a view to forecasting the demand for evacuation that would occur for the currently designated shelters and defining the ranges of evacuees that can be accommodated by the shelters. In addition, the results of the accessibility analysis and city space information were combined to forecast demand for evacuation that might occur in an emergency. The results of the study indicate that the accommodation capacities of the currently designated shelters can sufficiently accommodate the population residing in the administrative district when the area occupied by each person is applied but evacuees may be concentrated on some shelter when evacuees would evacuate to the nearest shelters in principle. In addition, the results indicated that 18.76% of the population residing in the subject area would take at least 5 min to evacuate to the nearest shelters. Therefore, resident’s evacuations should be forecasted through the forecasting of demand for evacuation and evacuation plans should be established based on the results. In the present study, accessibility analyses were conducted based on actual walking routes to secure practicality. The present study is meaningful in that the results can be utilized as a methodology to review demand for designated shelters and as a tool for designation of shelters later.

How to cite this article:

Lee Ji-Soo and Lee Yoon-Ha, 2018. Development of Demand for Evacuation Forecasting Methods for Shelters Using Accessibility Analysis. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 13: 5203-5208.

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