Authors : Evgeniy Sinitsyn, Sergey Vikharev and Dmitry Brusyanin
Abstract: In this study weinvestigate approaches to the prediction of passenger traffic on annual basis with a time horizon of up to 5 years. The data for Russian Federation was used. The factors that may be used to construct a regression model were investigated. The ability to predict passenger traffic on the basis official statistics (forecast GRP population, per capita income) is shown. The proposed models allow to solve the problem of forecasting the passenger traffic volumes done by public transport at the different long-term levels. Thus, the start of its usage at least at the annual long-term perspective is possible from the present moment. The information collection about region’s passenger trafficmay be the basis of such decomposition. Such information also allows to define the well-established proportions of distribution of the total passenger traffic volumes in the region on the separate routes within the dedicated transport districts and between districts. These proportions can be used to distribute the expected passenger traffic in the directions of interest.
Evgeniy Sinitsyn, Sergey Vikharev and Dmitry Brusyanin, 2019. Economic and Mathematical Model for Forecasting Passenger Traffic on a Long Term Basis Case of Study Russia. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 14: 773-779.