Authors : Sutawas Janreung and Wirawan Chinviriyasit
Abstract: In this study, the Mathematical model of dengue disease with two serotype of standard incidence rate is developed by taking in to account an impact of dengue vaccination, i.e., vaccination rate, vaccine efficacy and vaccine wanes. The developed model named dengue-vaccine model is based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model paying attention to a latent period after infection before becoming infectious. The mathematical analyze revealed that the model exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where the stable diseases free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium. And the backward bifurcation is removed when the disease-induced death rate is zero. To validate the developed model, the real data of dengue outbreak in Thailand 2013 is employed to study and verify the model efficiency. It shows that three vaccination parameters values of vaccination rate (ξ), vaccine efficacy (ε) and waning rate of vaccine (ω), respectively are critically important in controlling the transmission of dengue with two serotypes. The comparing results demonstrated that the predicted data produced by the developed dengue-vaccine model fit well to the actual data. These demonstrated that the developed model can be used as a suitable tool for predicting the dengue transmission in Thailand.
Sutawas Janreung and Wirawan Chinviriyasit, 2019. Development of Two-Serotype Dengue Model with Vaccination Impacts for Predicting Transmission of Dengue in Thailand. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 14: 9872-9883.