Authors : S.O. Olagunju , K.A. Bashiru and O.E. Olowofeso
Abstract: This research considered a statistical model for estimating the rate of spread of Human Immune-Deficiency Virus by making use of Ondo-West Local Government as a case study. The virus� modes of infection and some of the existing epidemic models were discussed. Ondo-West was randomly sampled out of the local government areas that make Ondo Kingdom. Records of samples were obtained from the two government-recognised Hospitals in the vicinity. Data on relevant variables comprising Year of Test, Age-group, Gender, as well as Percentage that tested positive were analysed. The study made use of Generating Function approach to solve the associated Birth process model. A reduction from normal population was numerically noticed through the use of Birth process model, Results of various age-groups (0-5), (6-22) and (23+), respectively defined as Infants, Youth and Adults were presented. It was found that the age-group (6-22) has the greatest risk, as out of an assumed 5000 members of each group, the Youth has 34 possible infected members, as against 6 and 27 for Infants and Adults, respectively.
S.O. Olagunju , K.A. Bashiru and O.E. Olowofeso , 2007. Statistical Model for Estimating the Rate of Spread of Human Immune-Deficiency: A Case Study of Ondo Kingdom . Research Journal of Applied Sciences, 2: 1025-1030.