Authors : Yousra Nafie and Baher Mohamed Atlam
Abstract: In this study, we empirically estimate the fiscal multiplier in Egypt using a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR) with quarterly data for the period 1990-2015. The estimation results show that the fiscal multiplier was positive and >1 during the first year, then turned negative for the subsequent years. Our results suggest that the low fiscal multiplier is an indication of the weak impact of government spending on real GDP during the period of the study. We argue in the study that low value of the fiscal multiplier is due to the rising shares of subsidies and debt services cost in government spending.
Yousra Nafie and Baher Mohamed Atlam, 2019. Fiscal Multiplier in Egypt: A SVAR Approach. The Social Sciences, 14: 255-265.