Authors : Leandro Iantas Moralejo, Pablo Rogers Silva, Admir Pancote, Wilson Aparecido de Freitas, Claudimar Pereira da Veigaand and Luiz Carlos Duclos
Abstract: The main objective of this research is to analyze the Brazilian residential real estate price dynamics in the period 2001-2013. The methodology applied was based on VECM model, Johansen cointegration and Granger Causality tests, impulse response funtion and variance decomposition of cholesky. A dummy variable was considered in order to capture the effect of “Plano Minha Casa, Minha Vida” of government plan in order to reduce the housing deficit for the low-income population from April 2009 to December 2013. As a result Granger Causality tests indicated a strong causal relationship of the model variables. Impulse response funtion and variance decomposition testing results confirmed that the demand shock encouraged by government actions through the increase in the volume of mortgage, the lengthening of loan terms and the increase in household’s disposable income committed to real estate financing has not been fully propagated in housing prices. As a research contribution, we note that in the short term, a significant portion of the variance in housing prices is explained by shocks in the rent price. Impulse response function empirical results confirmed that the low unemployment rates in the construction sector is one of the factors that pressured residential real estate costs and prices.
Leandro Iantas Moralejo, Pablo Rogers Silva, Admir Pancote, Wilson Aparecido de Freitas, Claudimar Pereira da Veigaand and Luiz Carlos Duclos, 2017. Analysis of the Brazilian Residential Real Estate Price Dynamics. International Business Management, 11: 78-88.