Authors : Kiran Gautam, Amrit Man Nakarmi and Shree Raj Shakya
Abstract: Energy is vital for the economic prosperity and social development of any country. Future energy demand projection is the basis for sustainable energy planning. The study presents the possible long term energy demand scenarios of Nepal using Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED). The base year for the analysis has been taken as 2017 while the low (BAU), medium and high scenarios have been developed from 2020 through 2040 at different economic growth rates 4.5, 7.2, 9.2%, respectively. Additional policy scenario has been analyzed at 7.2% economic growth rate. Total final energy consumption in the base year was 524.7 PJ while it is found to be 1,162.80, 1,489.65, 1,879.82 and 1,416.07 PJ in low, medium, high and policy scenario, respectively by the year 2040 resulting energy demand growth of 3.5, 4.6, 5.7 and 4.4%, respectively. However, the final electricity demand has been found to increase at the rate of 8.4, 9.9, 11.7 and 10.8% in low, medium, high and policy scenarios, respectively. The share of traditional fuel has been found to decrease in all the scenarios while the share of petroleum is found to increase in all the scenarios. Per capita final energy demand will be 29.42, 37.69 and 47.56 and 35.82 GJ in low, medium, high and policy scenarios whereas the per capita electricity demand will be 789, 1,145, 1,570 and 1,290 kWh, respectively by the year 2040. To fulfill that electricity demand the power plant capacity required would be 12.62, 18.31, 20.64 and 25.12 GW in low, medium, policy and high scenarios, respectively by the year 2040.
Kiran Gautam, Amrit Man Nakarmi and Shree Raj Shakya, 2020. Future Energy Demand Scenarios of Nepal. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 15: 2050-2057.